Retire Early Decision Wizard

The Retire Early wizard (full-screen wizard or the Decisions hub) helps you estimate when you could reach financial independence and whether a planned withdrawal rate is sustainable. It is a planning tool — not financial or tax advice.

Plan tiers

All plans: Explore savings trajectory, FIRE number, projected retirement date, and deterministic withdrawal sustainability without writing to your books.
Basic and above: A range of possible outcomes on the summary step; optionally save a retirement goal and import an income-reduction preset to the Cash Flow What-If panel. See what a range of possible outcomes means.
Basic and above: First 5 years at half the assumed real return, then the assumed return. Not a market simulation.
Premium and above: Save a named forecast scenario for side-by-side comparison later.

What the wizard does

Projects savings from current balance, monthly contributions, and an assumed real (inflation-adjusted) annual return. Leave inflation blank if that return is already real. Enter inflation only to convert a nominal return (Fisher identity; applied only when inflation is greater than zero). Conservative / moderate / aggressive presets change return and volatility — they do not fill inflation.
Computes a FIRE number from annual spending and your safe-withdrawal rate (default 4%): FIRE = annual spend / SWR. Optional Social Security, healthcare bridge, and part-time (“barista”) income do not change the FIRE number; they net into the withdrawal sustainability test and planning range as phased monthly spend.
Estimates years to retirement and projected retirement year/age
Optional retirement timing goal — when you want to reach FIRE (years from now or target age), separate from how long spending is tested
Withdrawal test horizon on step 3 — years in retirement (10–60) or plan-to-age (70–110); drives deterministic sustainability and the planning range. Default 30 years; for projected retirement before age 55 the wizard may extend the test toward plan-to-age 95 until you edit the field. The summary shows a real Yes / Depletes verdict for that horizon (not a dash) when spending is set.
Savings chart horizon is separate from the test: at least your timing goal plus a short look-ahead after it (or years-to-FIRE + 2 if later), capped at 50. Already-funded stays at least 10 years. A short withdrawal test does not shorten the accumulation chart.
A range of possible outcomes for outcome spread (Basic+) — simplified planning range starting at the FIRE number. Inflation shocks apply only when you enter inflation > 0. Not a guarantee of retirement success.
Link to import income reduction into What-If

Explore-only vs save

By default the wizard runs in explore-only mode: finish with "Done — explore only" and no goal or scenario is created. On Basic and above you may opt in to Save retirement goal, which writes a financial goal to your selected entity. Premium users can additionally save a named RETIRE_EARLY forecast scenario.

What is modeled today (optional inputs)

Social Security: you can enter a monthly benefit and a single claim age. Free users can also compare illustrative claim-age scenarios (e.g. 62 / FRA / 70) from a manual PIA estimate. These reduce net withdrawals in the sustainability test after the claim month — they do not change FIRE. Not SSA benefit quotes and not a recommendation of when to claim.
Healthcare bridge: optional monthly premium until a chosen age (e.g. before Medicare). Added to withdrawal-test spend during the bridge; not added to the FIRE number.
Account buckets: taxable, tax-deferred, and Roth balances for withdrawal order. If Roth / RMD planning is on without buckets, RMD assumes all savings are tax-deferred.
Roth conversion what-if (Basic+): illustrative pre-RMD conversion schedules in low-income years before Social Security and RMDs — optional conversion window, federal bracket creep warnings, fill-to-bracket amounts, and A/B/C scenario compare. Not tax advice and not a recommendation to convert.
RMD estimate (Basic+): simplified required minimum distribution estimates using Uniform Lifetime factors, with conversions and RMDs on one chronological timeline (growth applied once per year) — not your official RMD calculation.

What is not modeled

Tax, legal, or investment advice, or personalized claim / convert / withdraw recommendations
Full tax return preparation, state tax, NIIT, IRMAA, QCDs, or live SSA quotes
Automated optimal conversion recommendations or personalized convert/withdraw advice
Spouse, beneficiary, or inherited-account RMD rules
Pensions or part-time work beyond optional income you enter
Sequence-of-returns risk beyond the planning-range summary
Lifestyle or geographic cost changes after retirement
Amortization-based FIRE targets or automatic SWR changes — you can lower the withdrawal rate manually; longer test horizons show a hint when SWR is 4% or higher

These tools are educational scenario calculators only. Consult a qualified tax professional, attorney, or financial adviser before making tax or Social Security decisions.

See also Decisions hub (signed in) or public templates, Financial Forecasting, and Financial Goals.

Financial ForecastingUse forecasting tools to project your financial future and plan accordingly.
Setting Financial GoalsDefine and track your financial goals including savings, emergency funds, and major purchases.
Quit Your Job Decision WizardEstimate savings runway, depletion curve, and break-even with new income — explore free; emergency fund goal on Basic+; scenarios on Premium+.
Rent vs. Buy Decision WizardCompare rent and buy total cost of ownership — compare-only on all tiers; optional save to books (Basic+) or saved scenarios (Premium+).

Retire Early Decision Wizard